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Elections are now in progress for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial immigration proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

At the end of a election period focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's severe housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties participating in the vote – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no single party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been ruled by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and coalition talks may require several months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected shortly after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.